sábado, 15 de noviembre de 2008

Democracy and the downturn


Democracy and the downturn

Latin Americans are standing up for their rights
FIVE years of strong economic growth have prompted a slow but fairly steady rise in support for democracy and its institutions among Latin Americans, although many remain frustrated by the way their political systems work in practice. Most see themselves as politically moderate, but they retain a yearning for strong leaders and expect the state to solve their problems. These are some of the findings from the latest Latinobarómetro poll taken in 18 countries across the region and published exclusively by The Economist. Because the poll has been taken regularly since 1995, it tracks changes in attitudes in the region.

This year’s poll was taken in September and early October. It therefore reflects the sharp increase in inflation in the region in the first half of this year, but not the full effect of the financial turbulence and deteriorating economic outlook that hit some Latin American countries in recent weeks. Nevertheless, it carries some sobering lessons for the region’s politicians.
The poll underlines the fact that a small majority of respondents are convinced democrats (see table 1 and chart 2). In 12 countries, support for democracy has risen since 2001, when the region last suffered an economic recession. But only in five countries is it higher than it was in 1996. This year democracy has received a particular boost in Paraguay, a country where authoritarian attitudes previously predominated. The shift follows the victory in a presidential election in April of Fernando Lugo, a leftish former bishop who ended more than half a century of rule by the Colorado Party. That echoes similar hopes of change aroused by newly elected leaders in the region in recent years.
Conversely, in Venezuela, support for democracy may have been boosted this year among opponents of President Hugo Chávez, after their victory in a referendum on constitutional change last December. In Colombia, President Álvaro Uribe’s success against the FARC guerrillas may be the reason for a similar democratic lift.
Uruguayans are by far the most satisfied with how their democracy works (see chart 3). Peruvians are particularly disgruntled. That is paradoxical: Peru’s economy has grown faster than that of any other of the region’s bigger countries both this year and last. Their discontent seems to reflect deep flaws in the political system. But even if slightly less than two-fifths of respondents across the region are satisfied with their democracies, that is a significant improvement on the 2001 figure.

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