A popular president deadlocked by a determined opposition
Morales, all dressed-up but going nowhere
DEADLINES have come and gone but after 15 months of deliberations an elected Constituent Assembly seems nowhere near agreeing the text of a new constitution for Bolivia. That is a matter of growing frustration for the supporters of President Evo Morales, who set up the assembly. He promised that the new constitution would enshrine the rights of Bolivians of Andean Indian descent to land and autonomy, and uphold a socialist economy with state control over national resources.
But the assembly has become deadlocked, reflecting Bolivia's political divide. Although the mountainous and mainly-Indian west is solidly behind Mr Morales, the commercially-minded, whiter lowland east is bitterly opposed to him. The president's supporters in the Movement to Socialism (MAS) have a majority, but not the two-thirds required to impose their text. So the opposition has been able to stall the assembly.
Behind all the constitutional verbiage the main dispute is over money. Bolivia's natural-gas deposits are in the opposition-controlled east. The opposition wants the new constitution to uphold regional autonomy and guarantee its regional governments a large chunk of gas royalties. Indigenous leaders want similar autonomy, but the government wants to secure greater central control of gas revenues.
Last month similar tensions surfaced in a dispute over whether airports should be run locally or from the centre. This culminated in Mr Morales sending the army to secure the country's busiest airport, in the eastern city of Santa Cruz. When that triggered mass protests in the city, the president backed down.
Mr Morales then promptly announced a big cut in transfers of gas revenues to regional governments in order to pay—and increase by a third—an annuity received by all Bolivians aged over 60. This was originally paid, only to those over 65, out of the dividends from the government's shares in privatised hydrocarbons companies. But Mr Morales transferred these shares to the revived state oil company as part of his scheme to renationalise the industry. The increase in the annuity is popular: indeed, the president led a celebratory march by pensioners through Santa Cruz.
The new constitution has also become hostage to an unexpected source of opposition. The assembly sits in Sucre, a small central city which is the seat of the judiciary and was the capital until displaced by La Paz more than a century ago. Sucre wants its status restored. Ugly protests in the city prompted the assembly in September to suspend its public sessions. The government is seeking alternative venues.
Despite his radical talk, Mr Morales has a pragmatic streak derived from his years as leader of a trade union of coca workers. His vice-president, Álvaro García Linera, spent October negotiating tentative agreements with the opposition on the autonomy question and on the constitution's economic chapters. On paper, it is not hard to see a compromise in which the opposition accepts Mr Morales's desire to be allowed to run for a second consecutive term in return for guarantees of regional autonomy and a deal on money.
But the opposition remains suspicious of Mr Morales's intentions. Its leaders are alarmed by his close friendship with Venezuela's socialist president, Hugo Chávez. Venezuela has become a big aid donor. Venezuelan lawyers are reported to be drafting government decrees. According to television pictures broadcast by an opposition station, the troops who took over Santa Cruz airport included at least two in Venezuelan uniforms.
The latest deadline for the assembly to agree the constitutional text is December 14th. Few involved on either side will bet on agreement being reached. But Mr Morales remains popular: polls suggest he has the support of at least 60% of Bolivians. One way or another he seems likely to get his way—or most of it—in the end.
But the assembly has become deadlocked, reflecting Bolivia's political divide. Although the mountainous and mainly-Indian west is solidly behind Mr Morales, the commercially-minded, whiter lowland east is bitterly opposed to him. The president's supporters in the Movement to Socialism (MAS) have a majority, but not the two-thirds required to impose their text. So the opposition has been able to stall the assembly.
Behind all the constitutional verbiage the main dispute is over money. Bolivia's natural-gas deposits are in the opposition-controlled east. The opposition wants the new constitution to uphold regional autonomy and guarantee its regional governments a large chunk of gas royalties. Indigenous leaders want similar autonomy, but the government wants to secure greater central control of gas revenues.
Last month similar tensions surfaced in a dispute over whether airports should be run locally or from the centre. This culminated in Mr Morales sending the army to secure the country's busiest airport, in the eastern city of Santa Cruz. When that triggered mass protests in the city, the president backed down.
Mr Morales then promptly announced a big cut in transfers of gas revenues to regional governments in order to pay—and increase by a third—an annuity received by all Bolivians aged over 60. This was originally paid, only to those over 65, out of the dividends from the government's shares in privatised hydrocarbons companies. But Mr Morales transferred these shares to the revived state oil company as part of his scheme to renationalise the industry. The increase in the annuity is popular: indeed, the president led a celebratory march by pensioners through Santa Cruz.
The new constitution has also become hostage to an unexpected source of opposition. The assembly sits in Sucre, a small central city which is the seat of the judiciary and was the capital until displaced by La Paz more than a century ago. Sucre wants its status restored. Ugly protests in the city prompted the assembly in September to suspend its public sessions. The government is seeking alternative venues.
Despite his radical talk, Mr Morales has a pragmatic streak derived from his years as leader of a trade union of coca workers. His vice-president, Álvaro García Linera, spent October negotiating tentative agreements with the opposition on the autonomy question and on the constitution's economic chapters. On paper, it is not hard to see a compromise in which the opposition accepts Mr Morales's desire to be allowed to run for a second consecutive term in return for guarantees of regional autonomy and a deal on money.
But the opposition remains suspicious of Mr Morales's intentions. Its leaders are alarmed by his close friendship with Venezuela's socialist president, Hugo Chávez. Venezuela has become a big aid donor. Venezuelan lawyers are reported to be drafting government decrees. According to television pictures broadcast by an opposition station, the troops who took over Santa Cruz airport included at least two in Venezuelan uniforms.
The latest deadline for the assembly to agree the constitutional text is December 14th. Few involved on either side will bet on agreement being reached. But Mr Morales remains popular: polls suggest he has the support of at least 60% of Bolivians. One way or another he seems likely to get his way—or most of it—in the end.
